Parents plot shopping strategies By ANNE D'INNOCENZIO AP Business writer November 3, 2002

"It's very annoying when you can't find the gifts that you want," said the Manhattan resident, who has jotted her list of must-have toys in a special notebook. "That's why I try to shop early, and get them when I can."

The annual ritual of nabbing the holiday season's most popular toys is often a nerve-racking experience, but this year, Goodwin and plenty of other parents might feel more frazzled than usual.

Labor problems at West Coast ports, including a 10-day shutdown, have raised the possibility of merchandise shortages this holiday season, particularly in the toy industry, which gets most of its products from Asia and relies on suppliers to deliver on short notice. Given the backlog of goods on the docks, industry analysts believe shipments might not arrive in stores until right before the Thanksgiving weekend.

Many stores planned in advance and got merchandise into their warehouses earlier this fall, but their big worry is that they won't have time to reorder best sellers, particularly sleeper hits. That could end up disappointing children -- and toy retailers, whose holiday season accounts for 50 percent of their annual sales.

"We always chase product to the end (of the season), but now there's an added wrinkle to the chase," said David Novitsky, vice president and divisional merchandising manager at KB Toys Inc.

So far, there's no obvious "must-have" toy, but retailers such as KB Toys, Toys "R" Us and FAO Schwarz report some products are already in demand.

Mattel's Barbie as Rapunzel, popular since it reached stores in September, is expected to be this year's hottest toy overall, according to PlayDate Inc., an independent marketing services firm that recently surveyed 25 retailers.

Retailers have also reported that anything connected with Yu-Gi-Oh! a Japanese game introduced in the United States in March, has become a big hit. MGA Entertainment's new collection of Bratz dolls called Funk 'N' Glow has also been strong. Meanwhile, LeapFrog's Learning System, which was launched in 1999 and continues to add new software, should also be among the top 10 toys this season, according to PlayDate.

While there's no new video game console on the market, software makers have a number of new games. Rockstar Games' "Grand Theft Auto: Vice City" and Electronic Arts' "Bond 007: Nightfire," are ones to watch, according to Sean McGowen, co-founder of PlayDate, and toy analyst at Gerard Klauer Mattison.

Most video game software makers produce the games domestically, so they are not expected to be affected by the West Coast port shutdown.

Tom Conley, president of the Toy Industry Association, acknowledged big challenges ahead for the industry, particularly because of the expected shortages. But he's also worried that parents will feel too financially strapped to splurge on toys, although he said the industry tends to be less vulnerable to economic woes than other categories.

"We are concerned. Toys are not recession proof, but the toy industry usually fares better than other categories," Conley said. "Kids come first."

Goodwin said she would cut her own expenses before spending less on her children. She plans to spend about the same this year as last year: $1,200 each for each of her two eldest children -- 16-year-old Emily and 12-year-old Alexandra-- and $500 on her 3-year-old son Jack.

Still, merchants worry that there are plenty of other consumers, burdened with financial worries, who will be forced to spend less on toys. After all, parents pulled back on buying clothing for their children for back-to-school, resulting in a disappointing season.

Marie Carre, of New York, said that, given worries about her own job security, she will spend less on her 11-year-old daughter, Lisa.

And another parent, Talese Daniels, of Seattle, said she plans to spend $50 to $100 less this year on toys. "The economy is still bad," she said.